Will Africa follow Asia’s developmental growth trajectory?
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Is Africa’s development inevitable? The conventional
assumption is that all countries and regions will develop – albeit at
different speeds – and will eventually graduate from their emerging
economy status into the ranks of the First World that has been led by
the West.
The rapid ascent of Asian
economies in the past three decades and the
creation of wealth in their societies reinforces the belief that
“developing” is a temporary phenomenon. Whilst capitalism has tended to
favour the first-mover countries, the accelerated rise of Asia’s Tiger
economies and most recently China and its profound impact on the global
economy over the course of the last quarter-century is reshaping our
views on how countries and regions can develop.
The 20th century saw Asia recovering an influential position in
global affairs. In the 21st century will Africa could do the same.
The Asia region 50 years ago was characterised by post-conflict
societies, mass poverty and corrupted by populist ideology – not too
unlike many contemporary examples in Africa today. The narrative for
Africa has shifted remarkably in the past decade to one that is
decidedly positive – “Africa Rising” is what The Economist magazine had labelled it.
The majority of the continent’s economies are growing, strongly
propelled over the past decade by high oil and commodity prices, rising
consumer spend and the potential for early stage industrialisation. This
mimics numerous Asian countries – Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia come
to mind.
Companies have awoken to the Africa opportunity and their expansion
strategies in the region and have mostly focused on capturing consumers
and consolidating marketplaces. For companies to build embedded
businesses in Africa, Africa’s new growth trajectory must be sustainable
– Asia-style. This is what many corporates are now facing when entering
the African region: seeking to strategically position their businesses
in uncertain markets.
Will headline GDP growth translate into qualitative development
across the continent? Or put simply, is Africa the next Asia? This can
be evaluated through the three lenses of extractives, consumerism and
industrialisation. All three will have important implications for
aspirant African states and societies.
An unsustainable sector remains the priority economic model
It is most often the case that a country’s development prospects are
inversely proportional to its natural resource endowment. The so-called
“resource curse” is widespread across Africa. Economies are dependent,
often single resource dependent, on the vagaries of commodity prices
determined in the international marketplace. Unable to diversify, their
governments are restricted to collecting limited rents from
multinational companies. An investment in a resource is largely an
exercise of investing in an asset with continuing diminishing rates of
return. Without diversification to manufacturing and services, long-term
developmental prospects are always bleak. This is a key lesson to be
gained from Asia.
Amongst the leading country examples of this is Nigeria where the
disconnect between potential, and developmental reality is very stark.
Nigeria has never been as dependent on oil as it is today with over 90%
of its export earnings coming from this resource. However, let us assume
two things are constant, namely – Nigeria’s proven oil reserves and its
current rate of production, then the country’s oil will be depleted in
approximately four decades. Clearly diversification is imperative to a
sustainable future.
Resource-endowed countries in Africa are anything but examples of
inclusive growth. Wealth is unable to trickle down into broader society
from “narrow” extractive industries, especially in the face of corrupt
and bureaucratic governments. The internal security threats that afflict
many African countries – Nigeria and surrounding fragile states in the
Sahel region in particular – is testament to their inability to bring
about inclusive growth for the majority of their citizens. Ultimately
governance will determine how resource rents are re-invested into making
African economies sustainable with equitable development models.
“First-movers” capture the African consumer market
The most accurate “Africa Rising” story is that of consumer
facing-companies expanding their footprints across the continent to
serve a previously untapped consumer market. Africa is emerging as the
“next India” – a similar population and growth rate – albeit twenty
years behind the Indian reform and economic high growth story. This
business model is demographics-driven – capturing clusters of consumers
and consolidating the business through more efficient supply chain
management. This “first-mover” advantage is crucial in such highly
fragmented sub-Saharan African markets, and certain corporates are
leading this process in key sectors. MTN (mobile telecoms), SABMiller
(alcoholic beverages), Shoprite and Massmart (retail), MultiChoice
(broadcasting & media), and Ecobank (retail banking) are notable
first-movers. Most of these firms are listed on the Johannesburg Stock
Exchange, giving credence to the claim of South Africa being the
financial “gateway” for the continent – at least through its established
and well-regulated equity and capital markets.
As the operations
of these firms become more entrenched, they are consolidating supply
chains, driving trade across borders and linking consumers to new
arising markets. Arguably, private sector enterprises are contributing
more to regional integration than governments. The only African region
that can claim to be making real progress in forging a single regional
market is the East African Community (EAC), a regional market of around
150 million people. The centre of gravity of the sub-Saharan African
economy will, over the next decade, consolidate around three centres –
Nigeria with its 180 million people, East Africa with 150 million and
South Africa and its immediate neighbours numbering 115 million. Perhaps
Ethiopia is the wildcard; one of the largest countries in Africa which
recently joined the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa
(COMESA), but has yet to join the EAC. If it is to do so, it would
significantly bolster the EAC’s economic credentials.
In today’s age of consumerism, capital is attracted to demographics.
This is clearly the case in Africa. The previous colonial “scramble for
Africa” was driven by territory and resources. This is now being
replaced by a focus on consumers. The continent’s young age profile is
attracting investment that services a growing consumer appetite. But if a
country’s attractiveness to capital is determined solely by the size of
its population (think Nigeria), then what is the future of Africa’s
small countries? What are the developmental prospects of Botswana,
Burundi, Gabon, Malawi, Namibia and Swaziland amongst so many others?
Small African states have so far been unable to mimic small Asian
economies that have not just survived but thrived, despite their lack of
resources and apparent non-viable economies. Small and often
resource-poor African countries have little choice other than to focus
on building their own human capital and attract value-added investment.
There are however two small African countries that are emerging as
emulators of the Asian Tigers’ success – Mauritius and Rwanda. Both are
incorporating key traits into their economic model – ease of doing
business, economic agility, openness to trade, an effective government,
and an expanding ability to diversify into value-adding services. These
two countries will stand out as models for others to emulate going
forward over the next decade.
Climbing from the bottom rung of the industrialisation ladder
No single developmental success story comes to mind in which an
economy has developed without first industrialising. Arguably, African
governments have not taken advantage of the last decade’s growth spurt
to move toward diversification. If Africa is to deliver on the hype of The Economist’s
“Africa Rising” narrative, it is imperative that the continent’s
economies diversify. This can only be done through sustained and
sizeable investment in people – the need to generate, retain and create
opportunities for talent in domestic economies. At a policy level, for
Africa to mimic Asia’s developmental trajectory, sub-Saharan African
states will need to forge pro-active business friendly growth models
rather than aid-supported reactive commodity price driven ones that
result in nothing more than dependency.
The shifting value chain of production in Asia – most importantly
away from China – holds out enormous potential for Africa. The rising
cost pressures on China’s light industrial manufacturing sector will
lead to manufacturing capacity to relocate to lower-cost foreign
economies. Chinese “hollowing out” of low-end manufacturing and
offshoring is fast becoming a reality. China’s economic rebalancing
could encourage diversification in Africa.
As this shift in production out of China’s south eastern provinces
takes place, there is a prospect for forward-looking African countries
to emerge as “new Vietnams” – lesser cost destinations for manufacturing
investment from China. Ethiopia is emerging as the best candidate to
assume this role. The country is now attracting low-end manufacturing
from China, including shoe, steel, cement and light vehicle production.
Ethiopia’s “authoritarian developmental” model is becoming conducive to
attracting Asian investment seeking a stable manufacturing platform in
Africa – both for export and to supply Africa’s own growing consumer
economy.
Justin Lin, former Chief Economist of the World Bank, calculates that
China could lose up to 85 million jobs within the next decade due to
rising production costs. If Africa is able to capture just one tenth of
these offshored jobs the continent will effectively double its existing
manufacturing workforce. If this opportunity is seized by reformist
African states, they could well be on the cusp of a 19th century style
industrial revolution – generating large amounts of high employment and
creating industries in their own economies.
Key take-away
Africa’s notoriously non-inclusive growth model must adapt, and adapt
fast, in order for real economic transformation to take place.
Countries will need to deepen their economies through diversification
and those that are able to achieve this will move towards a more
qualitative and ultimately sustainable growth trajectory. This has been
the story of Asia over the past three decades. Africa’s tilt toward Asia
has been up until now a reflection of the direction of trade and flow
of trade between the two regions. There are however, deeper lessons in
sustainable growth and developmental that Asia presents to Africa’s
frontier economies.
Dr Martyn Davies is managing director for emerging markets and Africa at Frontier Advisory Deloitte. This piece was initially written for the official NEPAD Yearbook, 2016.
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